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5-3-2014 - Kentucky Derby Day Races 5-11  |  5-2-2014 - Kentucky Oaks Day Races 5-11  |  4-10-2014 - Pimlico Races 2-8  |   View Selections Archive


5-3-2014 - Kentucky Derby Day Races 5-11

Kentucky Derby Stats Guide & Strike System - Purchase Guide Package 

Did you know 65% of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners share a common stat that produces are positive ROI!  Details on this stat and more are include in our Stats Guide.

Kentucky Derby Stats Guide - A Guide full of stats and analysis that will help you include or eliminate horses.

Kentucky Derby Supplement Sheets - A list by post position of the horses in the field for the Kentucky Derby. It includes Par Ratings, trip notes for each Kentucky Derby prep race, my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.

Our Kentucky Derby Strike System - A strike system based on our stats that looks at three categories Basic stats, Ability stats and Current Form stats. Using our strike system horses with 0 or 1 strike have won the Kentucky Derby 70% of the time in the last 20 years and produced a 53% ROI (Return on Investment). On average the Kentucky Derby field has contained 4.3 horses with 0 or 1 strike. This year only three horses fit these criteria.

Kentucky Derby Day Races 5-11


Updated 10:35am EST.

Race Rating System-
In most races I give you 5 picks to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.



Race 5 - 7f OC - Action+
A - #9 Jessica's Star (8-1) - could be the speed of the race, has run some decent numbers on the dirt
B - #7 Thundergram (6-1) - class drop and shortening up, but he doesn't appear better than these on paper
C - #8 Ulanbator (5-1) - like the post and ran a good stalking trip last out
D - #3 Standpoint (20-1) - closer that could really boost exotics
E - #11 Sultry Cat (4-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 9,7,8
Suggest Plays:




Race 6 - 1 mi Distaff Turf Mile G2 - Prime
A - #9 Centre Court (7/5) - towers over this field and has a favorable post for style, plus is dropping from a good grade 1 performance
B - #3 Miz Ida (6-1) - making her first start in 2014, but she is 5 out of 7 at this distance on the turf and she has a decent work tab.
C - #7 Ready Signal (12-1) - this horse can close and with the outside post she should get a good trip, exotics boost
D - #8 Effie Trinket (6-1)
E - #6 I'm Already Sexy (10-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 9
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 9 / 3,7 / 3,7,8 = $4
$0.50 - 9 / 3,7,8,6 / 3,7,8,6 = $6
$0.50 - 3,7 / 9 / 3,7,8,6 = $3



Race 7 - 7f Humana Distaff G1 - Play
A - #6 Iotapa (7/2) - cutting back in distance and should be forwardly placed
B - #8 Midnight Lucky (5/2) - should get a clean trip breaking from the outside, a repeat of her Acorn form would see her a winner here, but she'll need to fire fresh
C - #3 Judy the Beauty (3-1) - grade 1 win last out was on synthetic, still she has some good dirt form, top contender
D - #5 Scherzinger (7/2)

Multi-Race Horses - 6,8,3
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 6,8,3 / 6,8,3 = $12



Race 8 - 1-1/16mi American Turf G2 - Action
A - #8 Storming Inti (4-1) - may get an easy lead, numbers fit with these
B - #10 Picozza (5-1) - has yet to beat winners, but he should get a good trip here and his numbers make him seem capable
C - #3 Quotient (9/2) - will need to work a trip, but should appreciate the distance, very likely
D - #
2 Chief Barker (5-1) - first time starters from across the pond are always dangerous
E - #5 Global View (9/2)

Multi-Race Horses - 8,10,3
Suggest Plays:




Race 9 - 7f Churchill Downs G2 - Action
A - #4 Sahara Sky (4-1) - best effort would edge these, but 3 improving beyers make me a little wary
B - #3 Broadway Empire (15-1) - strong last work and will be forwardly placed, plus having Stevens in the saddle doesn't hurt your feelings
C - #11 Shakin It Up (7/2) - should get a good trip, needs to fire back Jan or Dec form
D - #10 Delaunay (5/2) - her best form would drill these, but 7f may not be to her liking and the recent out was dull.  i would have liked to have seen a good 12 sec clip in a recent work
E - #2 Clearly Now (9/2)

Multi-Race Horses -  4,3,11,10
Suggest Plays:




Race 10 - 1-1/8mi Woodford Reserve G1 - Play
A - #1 Wise Dan (4/5) - would be a prime, except I'm not crazy about his post or his liking to 1-1/8 miles vs. some of these who are proven at the distance.  still, he is the best horse in the race. 
B - #7 Boisterous (8-1) - like the post for his running style and he is 4 out of 8 at this distance on the turf with some good back class as well
C - #8 Finnegans Wake (20-1) - lots of class and his numbers fit with those who could break into the exotics
D - #5 Kaigun (8-1) - can close well
E - #10 Seek Again (6-1) - a grade 1 winner, 1st out in 2014

Multi-Race Horses - 1,7
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 1 / 7,8,5 / 7,8,5 = $6
$0.50 - 1 / 7,8,5,10 / 7,8,5,10,9 = $8
$0.50 - 7 / 1 / 8,5,10,9 = $2



Race 11 - 1-1/4mi Kentucky Derby G1 - Play
A - #5 California Chrome (5/2) - I have to handicap races thinking that my selections will break well and if he does he could be several lengths better than these.  but even a step slow and he could find himself well back, just watch Union Rags in 2012.  He fits several angles from my stats and strike system.  Just too much to like to knock on the chance that he might not break that well.
B - #16 Intense Holiday (12-1) - I originally had him farther down on the list, but if you draw a line thru his last start his other races have been pretty good.  And the clockers have loved him in the mornings.
C - #4 Danza (10-1) - he showed us who the boss was (sorry had to do it) in the Arkansas Derby and his works in the morning have suggested that the race was no fluke.  He should like the distance.  He'll need to work a trip, but look for him to come with a head of steam in the stretch.
D - #15 Tapiture (15-1) - I don't know how he'll handle the distance and his last race was flat.  Maybe it was a regression, but when you consider that he didn't need the points to get into the Derby and he was completely taken out of his running style before the 1st turn, the race seems like one you can draw a line thru.  But I love the outside post for his style and his other prep races have been good.
E - #20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - ran par in his Wood Memorial win.  I'm not worried about the post as he is a one run type of horse.  He fits a stat based on ability that 65% of the past 20 Derby winners have shared and I've heard he looks good in the mornings.


Bottom End Exotic horses:
F - #18 Candy Boy (20-1) - have heard good things about him in the mornings, seems a cut below the top
G - #14 Medal Count (20-1) - another horse that has looked good in the morning, but 3 races in 4 weeks may be a lot to ask
H - #12 Dance With Fate (20-1) - I have no idea how he'll handle this surface, but the clockers have said he seems to be doing ok with it in the mornings.  Could very well plod his way into the exotics.

Multi-Race Horses - 5,16,4,15,20

Suggest Plays:

I think the Exacta pool will offer plenty of value.  The lowest Exacta payout in the last 20 years was $31 and the average over that same time period is $950.  Both of those are for a $2 bet.  The play below puts value on my top 3 and then spreads out to try to catch some prices.

$2 - 5,16,4 / 5,16,4 = $12
$1 - 5,16,4 / 15,20,18,14,12 = $15
$1 - 15,20 / 5,16,4,18,14,12 = $12
$1 - 5 / 6,10,9 = $3

Happy Derby Day and Good luck!
Craig

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