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5-3-2014 - Kentucky Derby Day Races 5-11  |  5-2-2014 - Kentucky Oaks Day Races 5-11  |  4-10-2014 - Pimlico Races 2-8  |   View Selections Archive

5-2-2014 - Kentucky Oaks Day Races 5-11

Kentucky Derby Stats Guide & Strike System - Purchase Guide Package

Kentucky Derby Stats Guide - A Guide full of stats and analysis that will help you include or eliminate horses.

Kentucky Derby Supplement Sheets -
A list of 20 horses in the field for the Kentucky Derby. It includes Par Ratings, trip notes for each Kentucky Derby prep race, my notes on each horse and jockey and trainer stats. All the information referenced in our Stats Guide analysis can be found in these supplement sheets.

Our Kentucky Derby Strike System -
A strike system based on our stats that looks at three categories Basic stats, Ability stats and Current Form stats. Using our strike system horses with 0 or 1 strike have won the Kentucky Derby 70% of the time in the last 20 years and produced a 53% ROI (Return on Investment). On average the Kentucky Derby field has contained 4.3 horses with 0 or 1 strike. This year only three horses fit these criteria. 

Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Races

Pre Scratches.  I will update for play (pick 3 & pick 4) once the scratches are posted.
Race Rating System-

In most races I give you 5 picks to help you fill out your exotic bets.  In some races I may not use all 5 in my bets.  The A horse is ALWAYS my selected winner.  If no suggested plays are listed then I would not consider betting the race.  See the key below for how I label the races.

Weak - Poor races to invest in.  Usually too wide open.  Winner possible outside of my top 5.
Action - Some clarity in the race, but winner likely in top 4 or 5.
Action+ - Some clarity, but winner likely in top 3.
Play - can usually key top 2 (A & B) horses in exotics.  Good Exacta or Trifecta play.
Prime - Excellent race to key or single in the exotics.

Race 5 - 1-1/16mi La Troienne G1 - Play
A - #6 On Fire Baby (7/2) - I like the post and I just don't see anyone in here beating here based on recent form.  The only possibility I see is Devil's Cave on a loose lead.  Not sure she'll be the fourth choice as the morning line suggest, I expected to see her favored.  Class of the field.
B - #5 Devil's Cave (5/2) - may find herself on an uncontested lead.  the only horse I really give a shot to beat On Fire Baby.
C - #3 Unlimited Budget (2-1) - not sure about the morning line on this one.  She bounced out of a dismal first out in 2014 with a decent effort in the Rampart in which she got the best of Devil's Cave.  She'll need another step forward to win here.
D - #4 Magic Union (5/2) - ran a decent second to Close Hatches last out posting her highest beyer.  Still, she seem a cut below the top contenders here.
E - #1 Molly Morgan (10-1) - The one horse in the race that may offer some value if she can sneak into the Trifecta.  But that may be a tall order even though she has run well over the Churchill Downs surface.

Multi-Race Horses - 6,5
Suggest Plays:

$2 - 6 / 5,3 / 5,3 = $4
$1 - 6 / 5,3 / 5,3,4 = $4
$0.50 - 6 / 5,3,4 / 5,3,4,1 = $4.50
$0.50 - 5,3 / 6 / 5,3,4 = $2

Race 6 - 5f Turf Sprint G3 - Action
A - #4 Marchman (4-1) - like the early speed and he's 2 for 3 at this distance, numbers fit
B - #8 Sum of the Parts (3-1) - another horse with early speed, hopefully he can hang on long enough to catch a piece
C - #9 Havelock (7/2) - this guy closes really well and there should be some pace ahead of him
D - #6 Positive Side (6-1) - another closer that could likely get a piece with a good pace ahead of him
E - #3 Stormofthecentury (5-1) - could sit a perfect trip

Multi-Race Horses - 4,8,9,6
Suggest Plays:

Race 7 - 7f OC - Action
A - #12 Express Model (8-1) - class drops off a G3 in which Untapable blew away the field, is one of two horses in here that has beaten winners, will need to work a trip, but I like the value
B - #8 Avicii (12-1) - slight drop in class and has been in the money 4 of 5 lifetime
C - #6 Annoy (12-1) - 3 back beyer was good for this group and was earned on the lead on the dirt, looking for Rosie to hustle this one out of the gate and establish early position
D - #11 Ireland (20-1) - takes a class drop from a race where she obviously didn't like the surface, looking for a rebound here at a big price.  huge exotics boost.
E - #1 Springsteen Road (12-1)

Multi-Race Horses - 12,8,6,11
Suggest Plays:

I wouldn't touch this one intrarace, but if you can hook a price up in here through a multirace bet you'll get paid

Race 8 - 7f Eight Belles G3 - Action+
A - #7 Fiftyshadesofgold (3-1) - class dropping and turning back in distance, which can be a great recipe at 7f.  having Mike Smith aboard doesn't hurt.  excellent shot.
B - #10 She's a Tiger (5/2) - she beat two good ones in the BC Juvenile Fillies last out, but she'll need to prove herself again in her 2014 debut.  a good work pattern suggest she is ready.
C - #4 Our Amazing Rose (3-1) - has some talent based on her recent form, stretching out so she has some questions to answer.
D - #9 Milam (12-1) - should be forwardly place and offer exotics value
E - #5 Jojo Warrior (9/2) - nice work last out, but Baffert always works his horses fast, viewing as an exotics candidate

Multi-Race Horses - 7,10,4
Suggest Plays:

Race 9 - 1-1/16mi Edgewood 150K TURF - Action
A - #10 Resistivity (3-1) - lone turf win was earned on the lead, but if you compare her opening and closing fractions you'll see she actually closed fairly well.  Don't mind the outside post, that will just help her clear the field.  Needs a sharp break.
B - #4 Candy Kitten (5/2) - Pletcher filly has run well in all of her turf starts.  she would not be a surprise, but is vulnerable.
C - #7 Istanford (7/2) - another horse that will competing for the speed, but may be a cut below top 2.
D - #6 A Little Bit Sassy (6-1) - likes to run on the front end, but ran from off the pace two back and passed 9 rivals down the lane - have to like that.
E - #3 Grammy's Mc's Kitten (15-1) - can close, exotics value

Multi-Race Horses - 10,4,7,6
Suggest Plays:

Not sure I'll play anything here inside this race - too many possibilities.  But look to possibly use it in a pick 3 or pick 4.

Race 10 - 1-1/16mi Alysheba G2 - Play
A - #8 Appealing Tale (15-1) - seems a little odd to go against Will Take Charge, but this guy appears to be the main speed and 1-1/16 miles may be a little short for Will Take Charge.  He'll need to get a loose lead and you can't bet he'll be looking for the wire in the stretch before he gets run down.  Value play.
B - #2 Will Take Charge (4/5) - love this horse, but not so much in this spot.  if the race was a little longer or there where a few more speed horses in here, it would increase his chances.  Still, he gets Gary Stevens and obviously he'll be coming with a head of steam in the stretch.  Trying to beat, but not leaving off my tickets.
C - #3 Mylute (10-1) - Not sure he can win, but Rosie knows how to ride this horse.  his last out was a good effort and he should build off that.  he has been in the trifecta in 9 out of his 13 starts. 
D - #7 Golden Ticket (6-1) - an obvious contender just based on his numbers and record at this distance.  still, I don't think he can get the best of Will Take Charge.
E - #1 Moonshine Mulling (15-1) - ran a huge figure last out, but it was earned while on a loose lead and those horses rarely repeat.  he'll be forwardly placed and may not fade out of exotics.

Multi-Race Horses - 8,2
Suggest Plays:

$1 - 8,2 / 8,2 / 3,7,1 = $6
$1 - 2 / 3,7,1 / 8 = $3
$0.50 - 2 / 8,3,7,1 / 8,3,7,1 = $6

Race 11 - 1-1/8mi Kentucky Oaks G1 - Play
A - #13 Untapable (4/5) - towers over these on paper and the clockers have loved here, the 13 post is a possible issue, but she may be just that much better and can overcome the post without issue.  heard a clocker say she was the best horse working for either the Oaks or the Derby.  That says a lot.
B - #11 My Miss Sophia (8-1) - one of a few horses that like to race on the lead in here, but she has been working well, one of two horses that have any chance at beating Untapable
C - #2 Ria Antonia (10-1) - has been working well, but will need to work out a trip from this post, but the presence of Mike Smith helps.  Exotics for sure, win as a saver.
D - #4 Rosalind (8-1) - her numbers seem low on paper when you cross out the synthetic races, but she has really impressed the clockers.  good exotics horse.
E - #9 Unbridled Forever (12-1) - may get a good stalking trip and has looked good in the mornings.  would boost exotics.

Multi-Race Horses - 13 with 11, 2 on a saver ticket
Suggest Plays:

$3 - 13 / 11,2 / 11,2 = $6
$0.50 - 13 / 11,2,4,9 / 11,2,4,9 = $6
$0.50 - 11,2 / 13 / 11,2,4 = $2

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